National League East odds and season win total picks
The National League East in 2011 is about simple math, adding and subtracting.
The Philadelphia Phillies added Cliff Lee to formulate arguably the best starting staff in baseball in decades. Bobby Cox will no longer be in the Atlanta dugout, but the Braves front office added offensive punch attempting to catch the Phillies.
Florida is blending fresh young players into the starting lineup and new bullpen arms could make a good group of quality starters even better. The New York Mets made a deal with the devil (Bernie Madoff) which could cost them on and off the field. Intriguing Washington off-season acquisitions cooked up the “hot stove” league talk, but with no Steve Strasburg in sight for 2011, Beltway baseball will feature more losing.
Atlanta Braves
Braves OF Jason Heyward.
Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: 88
Odds to win: +458
Biggest losses: Bobby Cox, OF Melky Cabrera
Biggest additions: 2B Dan Uggla, RHR Scott Linebrink
Braves Outlook: New manager Fredi Gonzalez would like to be baseball’s version of Aaron Rodgers in succeeding Brett Favre. Gonzalez could have a tall order after Atlanta engineered 91 victories and a playoff appearance last season. The Braves led the majors in final at-bat wins with 25.
The Tomahawks have a nice combination of youth and experience in the everyday lineup with young fellas like RF Jason Heyward and presumably 20-year old Freddie Freeman at first base. Catcher Brian McCann, CF Nate McLouth and 2B Dan Uggla should all be in their prime, while Chipper Jones and SS Alex Gonzalez try to contribute in down side of their careers. Uggla was brought in to beef up the offense, yet his iron-glove defense is a negative.
Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe bring a wealth of pitching experience and knowledge to the mound each time out, but how much longer can they be top of the rotation hurlers? Jair Jurrjens is an obvious talent, but can he stay healthy? Tommy Hanson seems to fight himself as much as the opposition.
Season win total pick: Under 88.5
Florida Marlins
Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez.
Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: 82
Odds to win: +1204
Biggest loss: 2B Dan Uggla
Biggest additions: C John Buck, LHR Randy Choate
Marlins Outlook: It’s the final season in cavernous Sun Life Stadium for the Marlins and this is an organization that builds and rebuilds like no other. Last season outfielders Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison were excellent additions to Florida’s local nine. First sacker Gaby Sanchez had a productive year with the bat, in spite of what scouts consider a “slow bat”. The centerpiece of the franchise is Hanley Ramirez who - by his own manager’s account - is expecting an MVP level campaign to make-up for Uggla’s departure. A top five NL run producing offense could make Fish a playoff team.
The Florida starting staff should give them a chance for a victory nearly every day. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly added Javier Vazquez have to be more aggressive in throwing strikes, and avoid repeating last season’s 12th rank in walks allowed. The bullpen as a whole looks deeper and could become an asset.
Season win total pick: Over 81.5
New York Mets
Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
Last season record: 79-83
Projected season win total: 77.5
Odds to win: +2111
Biggest losses: RHP John Maine, Fernando Tatis
Biggest additions: RHR D.J. Carrasco, C Ronny Paulino
Mets Outlook: In a media market always thirsting for headlines, the New York Mets are already off to a tremendous start with their reported financial woes. Sandy Alderson left the commissioner’s office to be the new GM and has a number of decisions to make both this year and in the near future.
David Wright and Ike Davis have the Mets set at the corners, however the middle infield is worrisome. Though only 27, Jose Reyes continues to make annual trips to the disabled list and his game-focus wanes with each passing season. The second base position is up for grabs.
The Metropolitans were 13th in the NL in runs scored at 4.04 runs per game and the outfield played a monstrous part in these failures. New York fans are sick of Carlos Beltran and he’ll be 34 in April, playing with bad wheels. Jason Bay batted .219 after the first inning in 2010, but at least CF Angel Pagan is a keeper.
The Mets pitching staff does not have the skill to carry a weaker hitting team with or without Johan Santana and a new and improved (personality-wise) Frankie Rodriguez.
Season win total pick: Under 77
Philadelphia Phillies
Phils new ace Cliff Lee.
Last season record: 97-65
Projected season win total: 97
Odds to win: -349
Biggest losses: OF Jayson Werth, LHP Jamie Moyer
Biggest addition: LHP Cliff Lee
Phillies Outlook: The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt on July 29th last season and the record of the starting pitchers was 31-14 from that point forward, adding Cliff Lee to the mix this year. If you can assume the four aces of the staff won’t have debilitating ailments, this would mean in every three-game series the Phillies play, they will send to the slab a minimum of two studs and most of the time three , when you include Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. No wonder skipper Charlie Manuel is smiling so much these days.
Credit GM Ruben Amaro for having the foresight to realize he can still be a World Series contender, going more with pitching than hitting. With the exception of right field, every other position player is 30 years old or more and the likelihood of more than two of them surpassing previous career numbers is remote.
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins cannot hit .218 again against right-handed pitchers and if he can approach past levels, there is more than enough power for the Phils to be in the top three of National League in runs scored.
Season win total pick: Over 97
Washington Nationals
Last season record: 69-93
Projected season win total: 71
Odds to win: +4147
Biggest losses: 1B Adam Dunn, RHR Miguel Batista
Biggest additions: OF Jayson Werth, OF Rick Ankiel
Nationals Outlook: Being a Washington fan is not fun unless you have thick skin to take the ridicule. It’s the proverbial “shooting fish in a barrel” figuring out what is wrong the Nationals, instead let’s determine what might go right for Washington this campaign.
Ryan Zimmerman and free agent Jayson Werth should make a tough tandem in the middle of the batting order and the former Phillie will add defense and a winning attitude. Middle infielders Ian Desmond (SS) and Danny Espinosa (2B) showed potential last year and are being groomed to help the Nats in the middle of the diamond.
Washington will miss Strasburg, but the return of Jordan Zimmerman would be a big plus to the rotation and give D.C. fans something to dream about. Livan Hernandez, John Lannan and Jason Marquis are serviceable starters. The bullpen features Tyler Clippard, who had the second-most K’s of any reliever in baseball and left-hand batters hit just .151 vs. lefty Doug Slaten. If the Nationals are to show improvement, they cannot lead the majors in errors for a third straight season.
Season win total pick: Under 71
