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Odds to win American League West: Can Rangers repeat?

Texas was a surprise World Series participant last season and has nearly all the pieces returning from the American League’s fourth-best offense at 4.85 runs per game. But without Cliff Lee in the rotation, a return trip to the Fall Classic is remote.

Oakland had the league’s lowest ERA in 2010 and an upgraded lineup makes the A’s a contender. The Los Angeles Angels came up empty in free agency and have question marks throughout their roster. Seattle had the worst offense in the junior circuit by 100 total runs and did virtually nothing to improve a miserable situation.

Los Angeles Angels



Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: O/U 83
Odds to win AL West: +263

Biggest loss: OF/DH Hideki Matsui
Biggest addition: LHR Scott Downs

Angels outlook: Remember Angels’ baseball when it featured players on base continually? That style came to an abrupt halt last season. Run production fell 29.6 percent without a true leadoff man and enough hitters on the lineup card that hit for contact and average. Last year was the first time in 49 years the Halos did not have a single regular starter hitting .300 or better. The return of Kendry Morales will help add potency to the batting order and, based on spring training results, manager Mike Scioscia will have to get Mark Trumbo on the scorecard the way he is crushing the ball.

To start the season, Scioscia will pin his hopes on AL West’s best starting staff. Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro placed too much pressure on themselves a season ago and both have expressed a greater comfort level and should fit nicely with ace Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. If the bullpen becomes settled, it could be a winning campaign.

Season win total pick: Over 83

Oakland Athletics



Last season record: 81-81
Projected season win total: O/U 83.5
Odds to win AL West: +194

Biggest loss: DH Jack Cust
Biggest addition: OF David DeJesus, DH Hideki Matsui

A’s outlook: For the all the love the San Francisco Giants deservedly received, Oakland’s starting pitchers had the lowest ERA (3.47) in the majors in two decades (Boston -1990). General manager Billy Beane sees the similarities with his young studs and is convinced his talented hurlers can match their cross-town rivals’ success, with a bullpen possibly as proficient. Top starter Trevor Cahill permitted right-hand batters to hit only .198 and he has just turned 21 years old. Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez still have ample room to improve according to Cactus League scouts.

Oakland was 11th in runs scored (4.09) per game and next-to-last in home runs in the AL. The additions of Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus and Josh Willingham is an upgrade to a pitiful offense, however, none of these players have been able to stay healthy. Manager Bob Geren understands this team has to hit for a better average, as it will take three hits to score a run most nights.

Season win total pick: Under 83.5

Seattle Mariners



Last season record: 61-101
Projected season win total: O/U 70
Odds to win AL West: +2,314

Biggest loss: 1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Jose Lopez
Biggest addition: C Miguel Olivo, DH Jack Cust

Mariners outlook: Seattle’s past four seasons have been served hot and cold like the coffee the city is known for. The hot years of 2007 and 2009 produced 88 and 85 wins respectively and the cold campaigns of 2008 and 2010 registered a mere 61 victories. The Mariners offense was offensive, registering numbers not seen in the AL in 20 to 30 years. The unusual part is GM Jack Zduriencik did almost nothing to add punch. Designated hitter Jack Cust will strikeout a ton and hit some homers and catcher Migeul Olivo will quickly find out the difference between Safeco Field and Coors Field. New youngsters will dot the roster around Ichiro Suziki.

Felix Hernandez’s talents are being wasted on a club that can’t score and the dropoff from him to the No. 2 and No. 3 starters is like jumping into the Grand Canyon. Dave Aardsma is a reliable closer, however, the bullpen might not give the right-hander too many leads to work with. The biggest positive might be the defensive outfielders’ ability to track down opponents’ swings of the bat.

Season win total pick: Under 70

Texas Rangers



Last season record: 90-72
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win AL West: +125

Biggest loss: DH Vladimir Guerrero
Biggest addition: 3B Adrian Beltre, LHR Arthur Rhodes

Rangers outlook: It was a banner year for the American League champion Texas Rangers, however, with success comes expectations. Texas’ scoring didn’t catch anyone off guard, but the 3.93 ERA (tied for third in AL) brought a collective “wow” from baseball. There is a great deal of consternation if the Rangers starting staff can duplicate last year’s efforts. Colby Lewis was a revelation returning from Japan and former closer C.J. Wilson took over No. 1 spot in the rotation. Tommy Hunter, at 24 years old, was 13-4 with 3.73 ERA. Even the Rangers front office was not positive this trio can manufacture same results and toyed with the idea of making closer Neftali Felix a starter.

The offense is poised to put up solid numbers again, led by Josh Hamilton’s amazing skill set. He needs to stay healthy, as does outfielder Nelson Cruz and second baseman Ian Kinsler. New third baseman Adrian Beltre regained his stroke in Fenway Park last year and will find Rangers Ballpark equally friendly. Texas will try to duplicate last season’s 71-47 record under the lights.

Season win total pick: Over 86.5

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National League East odds and season win total picks

The National League East in 2011 is about simple math, adding and subtracting.

The Philadelphia Phillies added Cliff Lee to formulate arguably the best starting staff in baseball in decades. Bobby Cox will no longer be in the Atlanta dugout, but the Braves front office added offensive punch attempting to catch the Phillies.

Florida is blending fresh young players into the starting lineup and new bullpen arms could make a good group of quality starters even better. The New York Mets made a deal with the devil (Bernie Madoff) which could cost them on and off the field. Intriguing Washington off-season acquisitions cooked up the “hot stove” league talk, but with no Steve Strasburg in sight for 2011, Beltway baseball will feature more losing.

Atlanta Braves

Braves OF Jason Heyward.
Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: 88
Odds to win: +458

Biggest losses: Bobby Cox, OF Melky Cabrera
Biggest additions: 2B Dan Uggla, RHR Scott Linebrink

Braves Outlook: New manager Fredi Gonzalez would like to be baseball’s version of Aaron Rodgers in succeeding Brett Favre. Gonzalez could have a tall order after Atlanta engineered 91 victories and a playoff appearance last season. The Braves led the majors in final at-bat wins with 25.

The Tomahawks have a nice combination of youth and experience in the everyday lineup with young fellas like RF Jason Heyward and presumably 20-year old Freddie Freeman at first base. Catcher Brian McCann, CF Nate McLouth and 2B Dan Uggla should all be in their prime, while Chipper Jones and SS Alex Gonzalez try to contribute in down side of their careers. Uggla was brought in to beef up the offense, yet his iron-glove defense is a negative.

Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe bring a wealth of pitching experience and knowledge to the mound each time out, but how much longer can they be top of the rotation hurlers? Jair Jurrjens is an obvious talent, but can he stay healthy? Tommy Hanson seems to fight himself as much as the opposition.

Season win total pick: Under 88.5

Florida Marlins

Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez.
Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: 82
Odds to win: +1204

Biggest loss: 2B Dan Uggla
Biggest additions: C John Buck, LHR Randy Choate

Marlins Outlook: It’s the final season in cavernous Sun Life Stadium for the Marlins and this is an organization that builds and rebuilds like no other. Last season outfielders Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison were excellent additions to Florida’s local nine. First sacker Gaby Sanchez had a productive year with the bat, in spite of what scouts consider a “slow bat”. The centerpiece of the franchise is Hanley Ramirez who - by his own manager’s account - is expecting an MVP level campaign to make-up for Uggla’s departure. A top five NL run producing offense could make Fish a playoff team.

The Florida starting staff should give them a chance for a victory nearly every day. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly added Javier Vazquez have to be more aggressive in throwing strikes, and avoid repeating last season’s 12th rank in walks allowed. The bullpen as a whole looks deeper and could become an asset.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5

New York Mets

Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
Last season record: 79-83
Projected season win total: 77.5
Odds to win: +2111

Biggest losses: RHP John Maine, Fernando Tatis
Biggest additions: RHR D.J. Carrasco, C Ronny Paulino

Mets Outlook: In a media market always thirsting for headlines, the New York Mets are already off to a tremendous start with their reported financial woes. Sandy Alderson left the commissioner’s office to be the new GM and has a number of decisions to make both this year and in the near future.

David Wright and Ike Davis have the Mets set at the corners, however the middle infield is worrisome. Though only 27, Jose Reyes continues to make annual trips to the disabled list and his game-focus wanes with each passing season. The second base position is up for grabs.

The Metropolitans were 13th in the NL in runs scored at 4.04 runs per game and the outfield played a monstrous part in these failures. New York fans are sick of Carlos Beltran and he’ll be 34 in April, playing with bad wheels. Jason Bay batted .219 after the first inning in 2010, but at least CF Angel Pagan is a keeper.

The Mets pitching staff does not have the skill to carry a weaker hitting team with or without Johan Santana and a new and improved (personality-wise) Frankie Rodriguez.

Season win total pick: Under 77

Philadelphia Phillies

Phils new ace Cliff Lee.
Last season record: 97-65
Projected season win total: 97
Odds to win: -349

Biggest losses: OF Jayson Werth, LHP Jamie Moyer
Biggest addition: LHP Cliff Lee

Phillies Outlook: The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt on July 29th last season and the record of the starting pitchers was 31-14 from that point forward, adding Cliff Lee to the mix this year. If you can assume the four aces of the staff won’t have debilitating ailments, this would mean in every three-game series the Phillies play, they will send to the slab a minimum of two studs and most of the time three , when you include Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. No wonder skipper Charlie Manuel is smiling so much these days.

Credit GM Ruben Amaro for having the foresight to realize he can still be a World Series contender, going more with pitching than hitting. With the exception of right field, every other position player is 30 years old or more and the likelihood of more than two of them surpassing previous career numbers is remote.

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins cannot hit .218 again against right-handed pitchers and if he can approach past levels, there is more than enough power for the Phils to be in the top three of National League in runs scored.

Season win total pick: Over 97

Washington Nationals

Last season record: 69-93
Projected season win total: 71
Odds to win: +4147

Biggest losses: 1B Adam Dunn, RHR Miguel Batista
Biggest additions: OF Jayson Werth, OF Rick Ankiel

Nationals Outlook: Being a Washington fan is not fun unless you have thick skin to take the ridicule. It’s the proverbial “shooting fish in a barrel” figuring out what is wrong the Nationals, instead let’s determine what might go right for Washington this campaign.

Ryan Zimmerman and free agent Jayson Werth should make a tough tandem in the middle of the batting order and the former Phillie will add defense and a winning attitude. Middle infielders Ian Desmond (SS) and Danny Espinosa (2B) showed potential last year and are being groomed to help the Nats in the middle of the diamond.

Washington will miss Strasburg, but the return of Jordan Zimmerman would be a big plus to the rotation and give D.C. fans something to dream about. Livan Hernandez, John Lannan and Jason Marquis are serviceable starters. The bullpen features Tyler Clippard, who had the second-most K’s of any reliever in baseball and left-hand batters hit just .151 vs. lefty Doug Slaten. If the Nationals are to show improvement, they cannot lead the majors in errors for a third straight season.

Season win total pick: Under 71

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Odds to win National League Central: Brewers the team to beat

The Central Division has had three different champions in the past three years, which doesn’t bode well for the Cincinnati Reds – the defending NL Central champs.

The St. Louis Cardinals chances took a hit before the first pitch of an exhibition game was thrown. The Milwaukee Brewers addressed their most important need, starting pitching, during the offseason and they are convinced they’ll make a serious run in the Central Division.

The Chicago Cubs believe they are a dark horse, yet they’re having a difficult time finding believers outside of those drinking the blue and red Kool-aid. Houston has the weakest infield in the National League, which takes the Astros out of contention. For those who dislike change, the Pittsburgh Pirates make the world a safer place.

Chicago Cubs

Zambrano and the Cubs are +400 to win the NL Central.

Last season record: 75-87
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400

Biggest impact loss: OF Xavier Nady
Biggest impact addition: 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Matt Garza

Cubs Outlook: As has been the case since 1909, “Wait till next year” has arrived on the North Side of Chicago. Long-time baseball man Mike Quade convinced Cubs management he’s the right individual to make Chicago a division contender in 2011, after a 24-13 close in a trial run last year. Quade’s approach worked for a team not facing pressure, but the real test begins starting with a new right side of the infield and an aging lineup that used to bludgeon opponents five years ago.

First baseman Carlos Pena has to make more contact after batting .196 and which Aramis Ramirez will show up this season - the one who batted .207 before All-Star break or the one who hit .276 (15 home runs) after it? Shortstop Starlin Castro is fun to watch.

Chicago used to have dominant rotation, but this is no longer the case with the Cubs having a collection of No. 3 or No. 4 starters with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and others. Carlos Marmol is the single-most dominate reliever in baseball. It just isn’t pitch after pitch and he often has to bail himself out.

Season win total pick: Over 82.5

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are +220 to repeat as NL Central champs.

Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: O/U 85.5
Odds to win division: +220

Biggest impact loss: LHR Arthur Rhodes
Biggest impact addition: SS Edgar Renteria

Reds Outlook: After their first division crown in 15 years, Cincinnati did what any conservative poker player would do with a good hand and checked this offseason. The Reds front office think they have the right mix of veterans and youngsters and, like San Francisco, hopes their young pitching talent can put it all together at once.

Cincy features a potent lineup that led the senior circuit in runs scored (4.87 per game) and home runs (188). National League MVP Joey Votto had an OPS of 1.024 last season and is complimented by 2B Brandon Phillips, RF Jay Bruce and 3B Scott Rolen. A Cactus League scout I spoke to said, “The Reds need good backup for Rolen, whose age and injuries are catching up with him. At 120 games max (Rolen) can still produce.”

Here is a nice problem to have: Homer Bailey (24 years old), Travis Wood (24), Mike Leake (23) and Aroldis “Cuban Missile” Chapman (23) are vying for two starting spots along with Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.

Season win total pick: Over 85.5

Houston Astros

Houston is a +3,500 long shot to win the NL Central.

Last season record: 76-86
Projected season win total: O/U 72
Odds to win division: +3,500

Biggest loss: 1B Geoff Blum
Biggest addition: 2B Bill Hall

Astros Outlook: Owner Drayton McLane long neglected Houston’s player development, trying to chase a World Series title since 1994, and that lack of attention will again keep the Astros below .500 for a third straight year. Take any team in the National League and compare their infield to Houston’s. This is how the Astros will probably start the year: 1B Brett Wallace, 2B Bill Hall, SS Clint Barmes and 3B Chris Johnson.

Hunter Pence is the closest player to an All-Star on the roster with a solid career batting average and at least 25 dingers three seasons running. Center fielder Michael Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove winner and can steal any base but first. Carlos Lee is in decline as hitter, which is bad news because of his fielding liabilities.

Brett Myers is off a career season, but with weak offense and defense, matching 14 victories and 3.14 ERA will be a challenge. Left hander Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris were effective in the second half and each will need to start quicker in 2011.

Season win total pick: Over 72

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is a +140 favorite to win the NL Central.

Last season record: 77-85
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win: +140

Biggest loss: SS Alcides Escobar
Biggest addition: RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Shaun Marcum

Brewers Outlook: Milwaukee has often featured its fair share of sluggers, like Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, along with Gorman Thomas from the Bambi’s Bombers and Harvey Wallbanger’s days, to the current crop with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart. However, the best Brewers teams always had quality starting pitching and this club might be throwing a beer bash at the end of the regular season.

Offseason acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are the perfect complement to ace Yovani Gallardo and fourth starter Randy Wolf. Greinke is well known for his talent and “different” personality and claims he’s recharged playing for contender. Marcum had 3.64 ERA last season pitching in rugged AL East. Gallardo was 14-7 and second in punch-outs per nine innings (9.7).

It’s a foregone conclusion Milwaukee will hit and score runs, nevertheless the biggest trend in baseball is run prevention, which means CF Carlos Gomez, middle infielders Rickie Weeks and Yuniesky Betancourt have to be tight for new manager Ron Roenicke.

Season win total pick: Over 86.5

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are +10,000 to win the NL Central.

Last season record: 57-105
Projected season win total: O/U 67.5
Odds to win division: +10,000

Biggest loss: OF Lastings Miledge, RHP Zach Duke
Biggest addition: RHR Kevin Correia, 1B Lyle Overbay

Pirates Outlook: If this was a real world business, the Pittsburgh franchise would have gone out of business a long time ago after 18 consecutive losing seasons. The Pirates were everyone’s favorite visitor a year ago with only 17 road victories, which tied the 1962 New York Mets for worst all-time road record since the 162-game schedule was indoctrinated.

The glimmer of hope for Bucs fans is a descent nucleus of young talent led by CF Andrew McCutchen. The foundation of the future also includes 3B Pedro Alverez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. Lyle Overbay brings above average leather at first and a doubles bat.

The pitching is a completely different matter. The Pittsburgh hurlers had ERA of 5.00 in 2010. For non-sabermetrics baseball bettors, the simple methodology is that the Pirates, on average, had to score six runs a game to win. Pittsburgh lacks a No. 1, 2 or 3 starter and will fill those rolls by default. When the Bucs are in position to snatch victory, closer Joel Hanrahan has mid-90’s heat and a knee-buckling slider.

Season win total pick: Under 67.5

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis is at +400 to win the NL Central.

Last season record: 86-76
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400

Biggest loss: 3B Pedro Feliz, RHP Adam Wainwright
Biggest addition: SS Ryan Theriot

Cards Outlook: The St. Louis Cardinals’ World Series odds swelled even before the first pitch was thrown in spring training, with the Adam Wainwright scheduled for Tommy John surgery. The day it was announced the right hander was gone for the year, their odds shifted from +1,400 to +2,000 and they’re still climbing. Manager Tony LaRussa should have some time to find a replacement based on the early schedule, which only shows 12 of first 38 games against teams that were over .500 a year ago.

Kyle McClellan is the early favorite to take Wainwright’s spot in the rotation, with others possible to emerge. This places significant pressure on Chris Carpenter to win each time out and the other starters, like Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse, to be more effective.

The Redbirds have the players to score runs in bunches led by Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, however, the defensive range of this club is similar to Milwaukee. Not a positive sign.

Season win total pick: Under 82.5

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Odds to win NL West: Can Giants make magic again?


For the first time since 2001, the defending World Series champion is from the National League West.

Much like the Diamondbacks with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, the San Francisco Giants dominated with spectacular pitching and just enough offense.

The Giants won’t have an easy time holding off Colorado, which has a better offense and a deep starting staff. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made changes in the dugout and on the field and need Matt Kemp to mature. It was a magical 2010 for San Diego, but does anyone really expect the Padres to duplicate 90 wins without Adrian Gonzalez? Arizona was 27-45 against division foes last year and has a weaker pitching staff.

Here’s an inside look at the odds to win the NL West and their season win totals:

(Don't forget to check out Covers.com's new MLB future odds board too!)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona is a +2,227 long shot to win the NL West.

Last season’s record: 65-97
Projected season win total at: O/U 72.5
Odds to win NL West: +2,227

Biggest impact loss: 3B Mark Reynolds, 1B Adam LaRoche
Biggest impact addition: OF Xavier Nady, RHR – J.J. Putz

Diamondbacks outlook: Kevin Towers was brought in as general manager to clean up the mess no one saw coming in Arizona. In 2007, a young nucleus of players that had come up through the farm system and blossomed, winning the division with 90-72 record. Nobody at that time would have imagined that would have been the high-water mark.

Towers first order of business was to overhaul the bullpen, which was the third worst in Major League history with 5.74 ERA. He’s hoping closer J.J. Putz can regain the form he had in Seattle. David Hernandez and Juan Gutierrez are being counted on as set-up men. Skipper Kirk Gibson will have hands full with arguably the worst starting staff in the National League.

The everyday lineup has potential with CF Chris Young and SS Stephen Drew. Both are capable of extra bases hits and strikeouts. Justin Upton doesn’t turn 24 years old until late August and has the fifth-highest on-base + slugging percentage (.824) in 40 years for a player 23 or younger with 1,500 at-bats.

Season win total pick: Over 72.5

Colorado Rockies

Colorado is priced at +201 to win the NL West.

Last season record: 83-79
Projected season win total: O/U 86
Odds to win NL West: +201

Biggest impact loss: 2B Clint Barmes
Biggest addition: IN/OF Ty Wigginton, RHR Matt Lindstrom

Rockies outlook: Colorado’s starting pitching isn’t as strong as San Francisco’s, yet it looks to have the components to keep the Rockies in the NL West race all season. Ubaldo Jimenez was unhittable his first 14 starts a year ago, with a 13-1 record and 1.15 ERA. National League scouts love his ability and mental makeup, but wonder about his complicated delivery. Behind him are Jorge De La Rosa and 23-year-old Jhoulys Chacin. The real key will be the health and reliability of Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel to fill out rotation.

Acquiring reliever Matt Lindstrom was a shrewd move but could pay off if more issues develop for closer Huston Street and he should fit nicely with Rafael Betancourt in the late innings.

Colorado was third in the National League in runs scored and with Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton and Ian Stewart, the Rockies lineup could be the top-scoring bunch in the NL. Newcomer Ty Wigginton gives manager Jim Tracy more flexibility against tough left handers.

Season win total pick: Over 86

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are priced at +350 to win the NL West.

Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: O/U 84
Odds to win NL West: +350

Biggest impact loss: Joe Torre, C Russell Martin
Biggest impact addition: RHP Jon Garland, RHR Matt Guerrier

Dodgers Outlook: The Dodgers are the biggest wildcard in the division. After winning 95 games in 2009, Los Angeles slumped badly and finished a dismal fourth last year. Manny Ramirez was a clubhouse distraction and Matt Kemp became a malcontent. More than one player had an off year and Joe Torre was unable to communicate effectively with his club. Will new manager Don Mattingly be able to lead and not make silly gaffes like last season?

General manager Ned Colletti didn’t sit still, signing 10 free agents. Though most are mid-range talent wise, they do address the Dodgers’ needs. Adding P Jon Garland gives L.A. six legitimate starters, something that was lacking a season ago, along with Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly specifically. This helps the boys in blue in a division that is all about pitching and defense.

This is crucial year for Kemp, who had an Andruw Jones-sized drop off last season. Kemp is a plus or minus on offense, as Andre Either, James Loney and Casey Blake will put up usual numbers.

Season win total pick: Over 84

San Diego Padres

The Padres are priced at +1,266 to win the NL West.

Last season record: 90-72
Projected season win total: O/U 76
Odds to win NL West: +1,266

Biggest impact loss: 1B Adrian Gonzalez
Biggest impact addition: OF Cameron Maybin, 1B Brad Hawpe

Padres Outlook: San Diego led the NL West for 148 days before faltering, leaving plenty of gaping jaws on the West Coast. An even bigger shocker would be if the Padres come anywhere close to last year’s win total.

The loss of Adrian Gonzalez leaves a chasm in the batting order and the pickups of Brad Hawpe, Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson don’t figure to have much impact on offense. Last year’s second-best pitching staff (3.39 ERA) has changed - and not for the better. Jon Garland is gone and though Mat Latos has No. 1 starter stuff, he’s given the role by default. After Clayton Richard, the rest of the starting five is a moving target.

Last year’s biggest strength, the Padres bullpen, has witnessed defections, though setup men Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams still remain along with closer Heath Bell. But will the Padres be competitive enough to give these arms a chance to shine in the late innings?

Season win total pick: Under 76

San Francisco Giants

Can the Giants repeat as World Series champs in 2011?

Last season record: 92-70
Projected season win total: O/U 88
Odds to win NL West: +138

Biggest impact loss: SS Juan Uribe
Biggest impact addition: SS Miguel Tejada

Giants Outlook: The starting staff has two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, along with other young pitchers like Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, which gives San Fran backers the belief that they can be perennial National League contender. San Francisco was not dependent on its starting pitching alone, having a bullpen that helped them have a MLB-low ERA of 3.36 and held opposing batters to just .236 BA. Brian “the beard” Wilson returns as closer.

Offensively, the Giants were only average, ranking ninth in the senior circuit at 4.3 runs per contest. Beyond catcher Buster Posey and 3B Pablo Sandoval, are a slew of journeyman players. San Francisco is projected to be NL West champion again, but let’s not forget the Giants were 6.5 games behind San Diego on August 26. The Giants closed 21-13 and Padres fell into the Pacific Ocean with 14-23 mark in their last 37 tries.

It will be interesting to see how the young pitchers come back from all those extra postseason innings, as well as if the Giants’ everyday guys can come through in the clutch like they did in October.

Season win total pick: Under 88

Co warto wiedzieć przy typowaniu na baseball

How to bet baseball: Capper's tips for winning the MLB marathon

By SEAN MURPHY - COVERS EXPERT

Baseball may be known as America’s favorite pastime, but when it comes to betting, it generally takes a backseat to football and basketball.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on the diamond. The summer can be a profitable time of year, as long as you’re willing to put in a little time and effort.

Playing the odds

Moneyline betting requires a much different approach to that of pointspread betting. Discipline is the key and not making a habit of investing in big favorites is paramount.

You can win 60 percent of the time and still see your bankroll shrink if you’re not careful. That’s not to say that you must strictly bet underdogs and totals, but you have to pick your sports wisely when laying chalk.

As a rule, many bettors will avoid backing favorites priced higher than -160.

Perhaps the most important notion to drill into your head is that even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of the time. The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with the worst record in baseball in 2010, but still won 57 games, or 35 percent of the time. That’s why laying big prices on a regular basis is a sure ticket to the poorhouse.

Know your limits

Be smart about your wager amounts. It may be clichéd, but the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t lose your shirt in April when many of the best opportunities to cash in on the diamond come in the dog days of summer.

Unlike other professional sports, which top out at 82 games, teams are on the field almost every day over the course of a 162-game season. There are going to be spots where they don’t bring the proper level of focus.

Arms race

Scouting pitching matchups has to become as much a part of your daily routine as brushing your teeth. There’s a reason why starting pitchers are listed right next to the game lines at every sportsbook. You won’t find an individual player with as much control over the odds in any sport.

With that in mind, starting pitchers are only part of the equation. Solely basing your wager on who’s taking the ball on that particular day can lead to frustration.

With today’s pitch counts, starters will often work six innings or less, leaving at least a third of the game in the hands of the bullpens. You can’t count on a starter to toss a complete game every time he takes the hill, so you’re more than likely going to be relying on a team’s relief corps when the game is on the line. Pay attention to those bullpens and how teams fare in one-run ball games.

Who’s in? Who’s Out?

It’s important to keep your eye on lineup cards, particularly when teams are playing a day game following a night game. Star players are given the day off from time to time and you should be cognizant of that. Lineup cards are usually available about a half hour prior to the first pitch at most major sports websites.

Don’t doubt defense

Defense might just be the most overlooked area of the game when it comes to baseball handicapping. Teams that avoid those costly mistakes in the field win more often – it doesn’t get much simpler than that.

The three worst teams in the league in terms of fielding percentage in 2010 were Pittsburgh, Chicago (Cubs) and Washington. All three of those teams finished the season in the red in terms of units gained/lost. If you backed all three for the entire campaign, you would have finished down 47 units.

Of the league’s 12 worst defensive teams (according to the fielding percentage rankings), only the Atlanta Braves would have put money in your pocket. By contrast, five of the top six teams turned a profit over the course of the 2010 season.

Hot and cold

Make sure you pay attention to streaks. It’s not uncommon to see teams go on extended winning or losing runs lasting 10 games or more. The betting marketplace is often a little slow to the take when it comes to these hot or cold teams. As a general rule, it’s rarely a good idea to step in front of streaks on the diamond.

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American League East: Season win total and picks


The Boston Red Sox were not satisfied sitting on the sidelines watching the postseason on television last fall, so general manager Theo Epstein acquired a couple All-Stars bats to bolster the offense.

The New York Yankees were overwhelmed by Texas in the playoffs and their starting pitching places them no better than a wild card team. Tampa Bay cannot draw fans even being one of the top teams in baseball over the past few years and had to cut its payroll (talent).

Toronto and Baltimore have positives attributes; unfortunately they each play 54 games against the top three teams in their division which makes it difficult to move up.


Baltimore Orioles.
Last season record: 66-96
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +2000

Biggest loss: IN Ty Wigginton
Biggest additions: 3B Mark Reynolds, DH Vladimir Guerrero

Orioles Outlook: After a 2-16 start last season and four months of blunders, Baltimore turned to Buck Showalter as a mid-season managerial replacement. Showalter is known for micro-managing, but that was exactly what Orioles needed and they excelled with 34-23 record to finish the 2010 campaign.

The Baltimore front office blew up last year’s non-productive infield and replaced three of the parts. The left side of the infield will feature sluggers Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy and when the duo takes the field for defense, they will be throwing to 1B Derrick Lee. Second baseman Brian Roberts is still the elixir to the O’s offense even at 35 years old.

The outfield has talent with CF Adam Jones and RF Nick Markakis, and, combined with Felix Pie in leftfield, this should be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.

Showalter has Jeremy Guthrie as the staff ace and Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are both highly regarded by baseball scouts. It will be the days this trio doesn’t pitch, coupled with substandard bullpen, which will create difficulties for the Orioles.

Season win total pick: Under

Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez.
Last season record: 89-73
Projected season win total: 95.5
Odds to win: -152

Biggest losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, C Victor Martinez
Biggest additions: 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford

Red Sox Outlook: For most major league teams, winning 89 games is heady stuff. However in the AL East, that sent you home after the regular season last year. Normally, Boston doesn’t look to make a big splash, instead staying the course of building their farm system and compensating the talent on hand. This past off-season Boston went for the jugular, signing Crawford and Gonzalez and last year’s second best offense in the junior circuit appears unstoppable. With Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury paired with their new impressive teammates; opposing pitching coaches won’t get much sleep before a series against Boston.

The starting pitching is part awesome and part ordinary. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are young studs that should have no problems matching last year’s numbers. How good Boston can ultimately become will depend on if Josh Beckett and John Lackey adjust when not having their A-game stuff and can still retire hitters with regularity. Daisuke Matsuzaka remains more unpredictable than Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball.

Jonathan Paplebon showed signs of no longer being a dominant closer and the Red Sox retooled their bullpen accordingly.

Season win total pick: Over

New York Yankees 

Mark Teixeira.
Last season record: 95-67
Projected season win total: 91.5
Odds to win: +180

Biggest loss: SP Andy Pettitte
Biggest additions: RP Rafael Soriano, Russell Martin

Yankees Outlook: The Bronx Bombers led all of baseball averaging 5.3 runs per game a season ago and may have to match or beat that figure to stay as an AL East contender this year. After C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes, the drop-off in starting pitching is like going from Scarlett Johansson to Roseanne Barr; it’s not pretty. New pitching coach Larry Rothschild is in charge of fixing A.J. Burnett both mechanically and psychologically. New York brought in a carload of older free agent pitchers trying to fill the rest of the rotation.

The Yankees have acquired Rafael Soriano as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera, but it would help the entire staff if Joba Chamberlain could return as effective starter.

New York has a number of star players past their prime, yet the collection of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriquez and Jorge Posada is still better than what most AL teams fill out a lineup card with daily. Robinson Cano would hit third for more than half the teams in baseball, but not with the Yankees, which tells you scoring runs won’t be an issue. Manager Joe Garardi will have greater expectations for Mark Teixeira than a .256 batting average, suffering his lowest on-base percentage (.365) since his rookie year in 2003.

Season win total pick: Over

Tampa Bay Rays

David Price.
Last season record: 96-66
Projected season win total: 84.5
Odds to win: +800

Biggest losses: SP Matt Garza, OF Carl Crawford
Biggest additions: OF Johnny Damon, DH Manny Ramirez

Rays Outlook: Tampa Bay will raise its second American League East division championship flag to start the season, but in the off-season waved the white flag in a concession that expenses were outweighing profits. The Rays moved seven important pieces from last year’s 96-win club and will refill those positions with less talented replacements. Tampa Bay is not about to return to the days of 60+ wins this season, but will be a shell of its former selves.

Tampa Bay is trying to keep pace with its core players and retool with youngsters. Evan Longoria, enigmatic B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are now the gritty veterans and they will be surrounded by newcomers like LF Desmond Jennings, SS Reid Brignac and 1B Dan Johnson. Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez will try and maintain the AL’s third-rated offense from last year (4.95 runs per contest).

The Rays felt comfortable enough in trading Garza because pitchers David Price and Wade Davis are stars in the making and the rest of the rotation is sound. The two seasons Tampa Bay won the AL East it had a domineering bullpen, which might be a stretch in 2011.

Season win total pick: Under

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista.
Last season record: 85-77
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +1600

Biggest loss: SP Shawn Marcum, RP Kevin Gregg
Biggest addition: RP Octavio Dotel

Jays Outlook: Toronto has won 85 or more games in three of the last five seasons, which in most divisions has a team playing serious baseball late into September. The Jays are in the unenviable position of being matched with three of the best clubs not only in the American League, but in their division. Last year Toronto decided to come out swinging, literally, leading the big leagues in home runs with 257, which was 46 more than the next closest competitor the Red Sox. (Largest difference in 42 years) If you factor in the Blue Jays pitching staff was fifth in homers allowed at 150, Toronto’s differential between home runs hit and allowed was the widest margin since the fabled 1927 Yankees.

Slugger Jose Bautista takes his 54 home runs over to third base full time. Nobody expects him to match that figure, but the hope is Adam Lind returns to 2009 form, which would make up for the shortfall. Jays’ hitters do not get cheated at the dish.

Shaun Marcum was traded away in the belief that Kyle Drabek is ready to begin long and fruitful career as starter. Toronto is satisfied with the rest of its staff, however having Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch return from their injuries would be a huge plus.

Season win total pick: Over

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 L Central odds: Can the Twins hold off the Sox and Tigers?

Oddsmakers have made their feelings known; the Central Division should be a hotly contested race. A quick peek at the MLB futures odds board will tell the story.

Minnesota, the defending champion, lost a few pieces but will have Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau returning. Chicago spent a lot cash to improve its offense and is a definite contender. Detroit upgraded its lumber department too and believes a first-rate bullpen will compliment its starting pitchers.

There is a large chasm from the top three to Cleveland and Kansas City. The Indians have gaping holes on the field as well as the pitching staff and the Royals best talent is in the farm system and not quite ready for The Show.

Chicago White Sox
Last season record: 88-74
Projected season win total: 85.5
Odds to win: +191

Biggest losses: RP Bobby Jenks, RP Scott Linebrink
Biggest additions: 1B Adam Dunn, RP Jesse Crain

White Sox Outlook: At the end of last season Paul Konerko thanked White Sox fans, figuring he would be playing somewhere else this year. Instead, Konerko is not only back but is joined by Adam Dunn with his 40 home runs and 100+ runs batted in. With Juan Pierre leading off and Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham part of the supporting cast, Chicago’s offense appears extremely formidable.

On the presumption Jake Peavy is 80 percent the hurler he was in San Diego; the Pale Hose might send five quality starters to the mound with regularity. John Danks is the ace of the staff and Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd are expected to get their earned run averages back below 4.00 this season. Adding right-hander Jesse Crain (career 2.82 ERA vs. Central division foes) to complement lefties Matt Thornton and Chris Sales gives the White Sox a staunch look heading into the late innings. Duplicating last season’s 44 comeback victories (second best in AL) might be a stretch, even with an improved offense.

Season win total pick: Over 85.5


Cleveland Indians
Last season record: 69-93
Projected season win total: 71
Odds to win: +2461

Biggest loss: IF Andy Marte
Biggest addition: OF Austin Kearns

Indians Outlook: In 2007 the Cleveland Indians were one game away from the World Series, but with this current crop of players, the only way they will go to the Fall Classic is with a purchased ticket. Gone are the days of continual sellouts (Cleveland was 30th in attendance in baseball last year) and a fruitful farm system. Grady Sizemore, at 28 years old, should be in his prime, but off two injury-marred campaigns, his stock as an elite player has fallen. If Sizemore can return to pre-injury form, the Indians outfield will at least be above average with Michael Bradley and Shin-Soo Choo. The infield is a definite weakness, but Carlos Santana is a keeper as catcher.

For better or worse, Fausto Carmona is the Tribe’s best pitcher with 22 quality starts among the 33 times he toed the rubber. Carmona’s heavy sinker induced 30 double plays last year. The rest of the pitching staff could be charitably described as pedestrian. Manager Manny Acta has a knack for stressing the positive; he will have to look long and hard to find the right words this season.

Season win total pick: Under 71


Detroit Tigers
Last season record: 81-81
Projected season win total: 83.5
Odds to win: +228

Biggest losses: C Gerald Laird, RP Jeremy Bonderman
Biggest additions: C/1B Victor Martinez, RP Joaquin Benoit

Tigers Outlook: General manager Dave Dombrowski is bullish on his team’s chances to win the division. The addition of Victor Martinez adds another stick in the batting order to go along with Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and exciting CF Austin Jackson. Cabrera is a once in a decade slugger and has to pull his life together for himself and his teammates. Though there are weak gloves at a few positions, others will feature some of the best in the American League like Jackson and Brandon Inge.

Justin Verlander is the best starting pitcher in the division and if Max Scherzer (2.46 ERA last 23 starts) and Rick Porcello make the expected progression of young pitchers, Detroit has reason to be giddy. Adding Joaquin Benoit from Tampa Bay is a perfect match with closer Jose Velverde, giving the Tigers the appearance of a water-tight bullpen.

Season win total pick: Over 81


Kansas City Royals
Last season record: 67-95
Projected season win total: 69.5
Odds to win: +2927

Biggest losses: SP Zack Greinke, OF David DeJesus
Biggest additions: OF Melky Cabrera, OF Jeff Francoeur

Royals Outlook: The Kansas City franchise lost an average of 96 games in the last decade and Royals fans have witnessed only one winning season since 1994. Why then would there be sense of optimism in the land of beef and barbeque? Well, because the Royals’ farm system, by all accounts, is oozing with talent on nearly every level. Of course that doesn’t help this year’s club which oddsmakers have projected for 93 setbacks.

With the trade of Zack Greinke and the retirement of Gil Meche, a wafer-thin starting staff is what K.C. is left with, having Luck Hochevar and Vin Mazzaro at the top of the rotation, presumably followed by Kyle Davies and Sean O’ Sullivan. At least the combination of setup man Robinson Tejada and closer Joakim Soria is major league level.

Doubles machine Billy Butler (96 two-baggers the last two seasons) is unquestionably the Royals’ top hitter. The rest of the everyday lineup is a collection of average ballplayers who would likely be utility players on winning teams.

Season win total pick: Under 69


Minnesota Twins
Last season record: 94-68
Projected season win total: 86
Odds to win: +159

Biggest loss: RP Jesse Crain, RP Matt Guerrier
Biggest addition: 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Twins Outlook: Minnesota fans from year to year know what to expect from their Twins: A good team that has managed to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox without having anywhere near their payroll. This season will be different, with real excitement on the field and not just a new ball park. Manager Ron Gardenhire has a new double play combination in 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka and SS Alexi Casilla, who are both 26 years old and born just a week apart. With the return of Justin Morneau, the M&M boys are back, giving Joe Mauer his running mate. Baseball’s most fundamentally sound team also boasts an outfield that can hit and field.

Six different pitchers notched 10 wins for Minnesota last season, but Gardenhire wants to raise the bar for the Twins starters. He expects Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing and Carl Pavano to rack up loads of quality starts, mixed with domineering performances. One of three holdovers (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey) needs to lower their ERA’s by a run and throw like a No. 3 starter. Joe Nathan is a bit of a mystery at 36 coming off elbow surgery; nonetheless the rest of the bullpen has good arms.

Season win total pick: 86